Scenario: House and Senate in Democratic Control?

The most telling generic poll was sponsored by National Public Radio, and conducted jointly by Democratic and Republican pollsters. In a survey of the 50 most competitive districts in the country, as determined by the Cook Political Report and others, the poll (done in late July) gave Democrats a plus of about six points. In 2004, the total vote in those districts went Republican by some 12 points.

Will the Democrats take control of Congress?

The Democrats need a net gain of only 15 seats to take over the House, where the balance is currently 231 Republicans to 201 Democrats, with one independent and two vacancies. In the Senate, Democrats must win a net gain of six seats take control.

Polls do show a climate that favors a change in control. The electorate is largely unhappy with the direction of the nation and President Bush and Congress have been chronically unpopular. Democratic insiders have become far more optimistic now than months ago. James Carville, who ran Bill Clinton's 1992 presidential campaign, said "We have to go back to 1974 (during Watergate) to find such a favorable environment. If we can't win in this environment, we have to question the whole premise of the party." (Bloomberg, Democrats See Victory in U.S. House Races, Senate Within Reach, 28-Aug)

In the same article, even some Republicans agree. "The issue matrix and political dynamics are not good for us," says Representative Tom Davis, a Virginia Republican. "Only some big national or international event before the election can change that." Republican pollster, Bill McInturff, stated that "people are angry about Iraq, about gas prices, about health care."

In fact, congressional leaders are prepared to look at a loss of 20 to 30 House seats!!! In the Senate, they will barely hold on to their majority. This is quite a negative outlook. Is it possible that national sentiment is clearly against the GOP?

Still, Election Day is still about two months away. Could anti-Republican opinion maintain its intensity? Will voters be interested in voting in a midterm election and how likely they are to turn out to vote? One factor that will play a part in the election are state and local issues that could create waves against incumbents.

Pennsylvania: Climate against the GOP is negative due to recent actions of the state legislature. Top Republican members lost their jobs in the party primary back in May.

Ohio: Local "climate" problems. Rep. Bob Ney scandal with former lobbyist Jack Abramoff. Coingate scandal has damaged the reputation of the GOP party. Outgoing Governor Taft became first governor to be charged with a crime while in office, pleading no contest to four criminal misdeameanors.

Indiana: Anti-incumbent climate. One Republican congressman embarassed for being delinquent in paying property taxes.

I would figure that if Ohio and Pennsylvania end up fully Democratic, it will spell doom on Republican chances for maintaining federal control. However, even though Democrats will likely make gains in the Northeast and Midwest, we may end up with a return to political normalcy: divided government.

If Democrats took control of both houses, you still got Bush in the White House. It is basically the reverse when Republicans took control in 1994 when Bill Clinton was President.

Honestly, the GOP base will also come out in huge numbers because they would not want to see the Democrats take full control of Congress. Perhaps Republican turnout will be slightly lower. The reason? High spending, lack of a solution or progress in dealing with illegal immigration, the government handling of Hurricane Katrina when it heavily damaged the Gulf region and New Orleans, mistakes in handling post-war Iraq and the Israel/Hezbollah conflict, underestimating the cost of the passed Medicare legislation, and a largely bloated government bureaucracy.

We can also look at some historical facts. Besides the upset of 1994, neither party has made a net gain of more than 10 House seats over the last twenty years. Maybe 2006 will be another exception.

It can also be alleged that media polls purporting to show low approval ratings for Bush are overpolling Democrats and underpolling Republicans. USA Today tends to lean Democratic, but I think Rasmussen offers a better picture.

USA TODAY/Gallup - Latest figures: 42% Approve, 54% Disapprove (Aug 18-20)

Rasmussen Reports - Latest figures: 40% Approve, 57% Disapprove

Rasmussen's outlook for the Senate: 50 Republicans, 47 Democrats, 3 Toss-Up. As for the House, Rasmussen has a generic ballot set up where Democrats are leading 46% to Republicans 38%.

My Call:
House - Democrats take control
Senate - Republicans maintain control with Cheney's Tie-Breaking Vote

The Last Word
Republicans have been in control of the White House and Congress for mostly six years. The national debt has risen from $5.8 trillion to $8.5 trillion. Government bureaucracy is the largest ever. Iraq is in the midst of a civil war. We have sacrificed our international leadership during the Israeli-Hezbollah conflict. Honestly, Republicans have become more interested in staying in power than meeting the needs of the people. Yet, I don't think the Democrats have a better plan. I would really prefer a divided government than having one party being in control of everything. Stuff may get done slower but at least there is more compromise and more sensible legislation.