China will get there before the U.S.
NASA Administrator Michael Griffin told the House Science and Technology Committee that the Chinese will be able to put humans on the lunar surface "within a decade." Thus, they could arrive perhaps 2-3 years before a U.S. manned mission is sent.
Based on current level of funding, Griffin estimates that the U.S. will return back to the moon in 2019. A higher NASA budget could get the crews to the moon by 2017.
He compared the Chinese space program to NASA's Gemini program, which first flew four years before NASA landed a man on the moon in 1969.
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Let's see, Apollo Program started in 1961. Apollo 11 landed on the moon in 1969. So about 8 years. Today, it will take at least 10 years before U.S. astronauts can go back. If Griffin really believes that the U.S. is the leader in space in the world, this is really a poor example.
Quite a negative impact for the U.S. if the Chinese do get to the moon first.

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