Taiwan - Why do we continue to ignore it?

Every year, Taiwan and its diplomatic allies, now numbering 24 countries, have tried to secure a bid for a seat in the United Nations. Every year, China vetoes it, and the world body moves on.

Taiwan's African allies issued a declaration of support (Swaziland, Burkina Faso, Sao Tome and Principe, Malawi, and Gambia):
"As a sovereign country, Taiwan should not be deprived of its right to participate in the United Nations, the World Health Organisation, and other international organisations."

Setting aside politics and all, does Taiwan count itself as a sovereign country? There are eight different criteria used to determine whether this is so.

1) Has space or territory that has internationally recognised boundaries
Somewhat. Due to China pressure, the US and most other nations recognise one China and thus included the boundaries of Taiwan as being part of the boundaries of China.

2) Has people who live there on an ongoing basis
Taiwan is home to almost 23 million people.

3) Has economic activity and an organised economy. A country regulates foreign and domestic trade and issues money.
Taiwan is one of the four economic tigers of Southeast Asia. Its GDP is in the top 30 of the world. It has its own currency, the new Taiwan dollar.

4) Has the power of social engineering, such as education.
Education is compulsory and Taiwan has more than 150 institutions of higher learning.

5) Has a transportation system for moving goods and people.
Taiwan has an extensive internal and external transportation network that consists of roads, highways, pipelines, airports, and sea ports.

6) Has a government that provides public services and police power.
Taiwan has multiple branches of military -- Army, Navy, Air Force, Coast Guard, Armed Forces Reserve, Combined Service Forces, and Armed Forces Police. It has almost 400,000 active duty members and the country spends 15-16% of its budget on defense.

7) Has sovereignty. No other State should have power over the country's territory.
Mostly. Taiwan has maintained its own control over the island from Taipei since 1949.

8) Has external recognition. A country has been "voted into the club" by other countries.
Somewhat. Due to China pressure, it is not a member of the UN. Only 24 countries recognise Taiwan as an independent country. Taiwan does not have an official embassy in the US. However, many countries have set up unofficial organisations to carry out commercial and other relations with it. Taiwan is represented in 122 countries unofficially. For the US, it is through the American Institute in Taiwan, and the Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office in DC.

Taiwan issues globally recognised passports that allow its citizens to travel internationally. It is also a member of the International Olympic Committee and they do send their own team to the Olympic Games.

For the eight criteria, Taiwan meets five of them fully. The other three are in dispute due to China's stance on the issue. But regardless, it should be considered a de facto independent country of the world.

Yet, the United States does not want Taiwan to be independent. Recently, Presidents George W. Bush and Hu Jintao warned Taipei that its proposed vote on whether to apply for United Nations membership under the name "Taiwan" was provocative and could propel the region into a "possibly dangerous period." Both of them were attending the annual Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum summit in Sydney, Australia.

Bush, whose country has for decades supplied Taiwan with weaponry to defend itself from any possible attack from China, told Hu he too is worried about the move.

Worried? Bush was pressing for Kosovo independence as well as regime change in Iraq and Iran. But he's willing to back down over Taiwan just to keep China placated.

"Republic of" Taiwan President Chen Shui-bian responded back:
"Due to China's ruthless boycott and suppression, Taiwan cannot become a member of the UN. The People's Republic of China does not represent the 23 million Taiwanese people who deserve proper representation at the UN, who deserve to apply for membership with equal status."

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It is strange that we ignore Taiwan's democratic freedoms. They hold multi-party elections versus China's one-party system. They have freedom of religion, the press, the right to assemble, and so on. More people in Taiwan considered themselves to be "Taiwanese" not Chinese.

We should not ignore the fact there are more than 700 missile batteries stationed along the China coastline opposite of Taiwan.

Taiwan is a vigorous democracy. We send troops to Afghanistan and Iraq to implant democracy in those countries. Clearly, we should not shun emerging democracies such as Taiwan because China claims them.

China's suggestion of a "one country, two systems" will not work with Taiwan. Macau and Hong Kong were not independent states but were terrtories administered by Portgual and United Kingdom respectively. Deng Xiaoping had suggested that Taiwan be allowed to keep its own military, but the current leadership and the PLA could be quite opposed to that idea. Polls in Taiwan show approx 80% percent against China's idea.

Eventually, the Taiwan question must be answered. Will China use military force against the democratic island if it declares independence? It has been suggested that failure to do will result in a military coup in China by aggressive leaders who do not want to lose face. In fact, some may believe that China is willing to give up the 2008 Olympics and pretty much everything else to put Taiwan under Chinese control.

Is the US obligated to come to Taiwan's defense? No, not really. There is no mutual defense treaty in place. The Taiwan Relations Act of 1979 calls upon the US to supply Taiwan with military arms and equipment to maintain a sufficient self-defense capability. The US may choose to intervene militarily if it believes that military action against Taiwan violates the political, security, and economic interests of the United States.

But if war does break out, will the US step in? Will it back its words with action? President Bill Clinton did it in 1996, when he sent two aircraft carriers into the Taiwan Strait in reaction to China's firing missiles near the island.

Some Chinese may feel that the US is casualty averse and would back down from a fight over a distant island -- especially a fight against another nuclear-armed state. They also believe that the Taiwan Relations Act can give the US an excuse not to get involved if it were argued that Taiwan's declaration of independence is considered to be an act of provocation against China. Third, China's economic influence with much of the Asia-Pacific region and Europe could result in the US being isolated in any future conflict.

US forces in Japan are the closest military assets to Taiwan, but would Japan allow any military action? China could threaten to bomb Japanese sea ports and bases, thereby escalating the military conflict in the region. Same with South Korea. US could be limited to staging in Australia and its own territory in Guam. The military stakes can be quite high, and trying to carry out a limited war could prove very difficult.

It is with hope that war will not happen over Taiwan. Since the Chinese and Taiwanese are patient, this thing could last into the next several years or decades. Perhaps by that time, China would develop into a democratic country? Or maybe there would be real UN reform and the idea of permanent members be able to veto new applicants ought to be eliminated. Who knows...