Iraq is a success because...
..of 13% GDP growth. So says Kevin McCullough.
Now, prosperity is generally a sign that some things are being done right. And given the economic dysfunctionality of Baathism (even allowing for the effects of the embargo), growth would be expected upon its removal. But I have to wonder how much of this is Broken Window Fallacy, how much American pump-priming. And there's something a bit ghoulish about this, like praising Fascism for making the trains run on time.
Comments
Posted by: jeffrey smith
Posted on: December 22, 2006 04:59 PM
I have an idea that if we had hard statistics in front of us, the picture would be less rosy. If oil revenues have risen to 41 billion, that's compared to the pre-war UN official limit of 10 billion (I think. I may be remembering the wrong figure.). So a huge chunk of that GDP is due to the rise in oil revenues--and therefore not really repeatable. Or rather, not sustainable until and unless the oil infrastructure is not subject to sabotage by the insurgents. And of course a large proportion of that rise is really just oil revenue that was funnelled to Saddam--so the increase in oil revenue is at least in part an illusion.
Also, I've heard that inflation is relatively high, so the effects of those wage increases and tax decreases are not nearly as dramatic as they sound. And he implies that public sector unemployment is much higher than private sector unemployment, which is already almost 1 in 3 unemployed. I have to wonder just how many Iraqis are actually saving for retirement, as he suggests.
Those 34,000 businesses registered with the US Chamber of Commerce are, I assume, the number of businesses who want their chance at the the American trough.
If it's that good, why doesn't he invest in the Baghdad Stock Exchange?