U.S. withdrawal will aide cease-fires in Iraq
Iraqi government officials traveled to Iran in late March to seek help in establishing a cease-fire with Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr's Al-Mahdi Army. Iran convinced al-Sadr to order a cease-fire in the city of Basra, which has largely held to today. However, a cease-fire on May 11 for Baghdad's Al-Sadr City failed and fighting continues today, indicating that Iran's influence and al-Sadr's orders are unable to stop the fighting. The Shiite militias are divided into localized groups with their own interests and grievances that must be dealt with before cease-fires will hold.
Because government forces are unable to defeat the militias, the interests of these groups must be accommodated and compromises must be made to give them a share of power. The U.S. policy of treating all opposition groups as gangs that must be defeated by Iraqi and U.S. forces is not working. If the U.S. military, which is widely perceived as an occupying army, begins significant withdrawals, the current Iraqi government will gain legitimacy in the eyes of estranged Shiite groups. At the same time, the shrinking support of the U.S. army will weaken the military strength of the government to defeat the outsiders. Both of these factors will encourage the government to give opposition parties a legitimate share of power, thus reducing the fighting. Until a greater sharing of power is established, peace is unlikely. The presence of the U.S. military only encourages the Shiite militias to continue the fighting.
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